张尧浠：金价牛市前景仍不变、但需警惕灰犀牛风险调整

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced significant fluctuations last week, with prices showing signs of potential decline despite not breaking the 5-week moving average support, indicating a possibility for further upward movement if certain resistance levels are breached [1][3]. Price Movements - Gold opened at $4249.96 per ounce, reached a historical high of $4381.24, then fell nearly $300 to a low of $4004.11 before closing at $4108.63, resulting in a weekly decline of $141.33 or 3.32% [1][3]. Market Influences - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the failure of the Senate to pass funding bills have heightened economic uncertainty and increased safe-haven demand for gold [3][7]. - Investor expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also contributed to gold's price movements [3][6]. Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently facing upward trend line resistance, and a breakthrough is necessary to open up further bullish potential [1][11]. - The market is expected to maintain a weak adjustment phase until it surpasses key resistance levels, with potential support around $3950 and $3700 if it falls below [9][11]. Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to react to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the resolution of the government shutdown, which could provide opportunities for bullish positions [8][10]. - Long-term risks include the potential for a government shutdown resolution, which may not alter the overall trend but could present new buying opportunities [6][8].