特朗普将至，“这一次，韩国可能要含泪达成协议”

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. and South Korea are reportedly close to finalizing a trade agreement, which could significantly impact the South Korean economy, currently facing uncertainty [1][5]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The trade agreement centers around a $350 billion investment fund from South Korea to the U.S., which is a prerequisite for reducing U.S. tariffs on South Korean goods from 25% to 15% [2][5]. - There are significant disagreements on the structure of the investment, with the U.S. insisting on full cash investment while South Korea prefers a combination of direct investment, loans, and guarantees [5][7]. - The potential investment amount has increased from 487 trillion KRW to 504 trillion KRW due to fluctuations in the exchange rate, with the current rate nearing 1440 KRW per USD [6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Experts suggest that if the negotiations fail, it would result in a loss of political capital for Trump and greater uncertainty for South Korea, emphasizing the need for a compromise that includes both cash and loan guarantees [9]. - The South Korean economy is under pressure, with concerns that even a partial cash investment could exceed 20 trillion KRW annually, potentially diverting domestic investment resources and impacting employment [11]. - The ongoing uncertainty in trade negotiations has led to volatility in the South Korean foreign exchange market, reflecting broader economic concerns [6][11]. Group 3: Future Risks - Even if an agreement is reached, there remains a risk of the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on specific categories, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which could severely impact South Korean exports [12][13]. - The U.S. has already imposed a 50% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, with South Korea's steel exports to the U.S. dropping by 26% year-on-year [13]. - The potential for a 100% tariff on semiconductors is under investigation, raising concerns about the stability of future trade relations [14].