百利好早盘分析：通胀低于预期 降息板上钉钉

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, below the expected 3.1%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, also below the expected 0.4%, indicating lower-than-expected inflation and paving the way for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Market investors are increasingly betting on two future rate cuts, with a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut this week and a 94.8% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [1] - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below $4,000, further declines are likely, with a key support level at $4,025 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices have been under pressure due to concerns over oversupply, but found support and rebounded around the $56 mark [3] - U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, aimed at limiting Russian oil exports, could lead to a short-term supply crunch, as these companies account for over 5% of global oil supply [3] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease of approximately 2 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, with simultaneous declines in distillate and gasoline inventories, providing support for oil prices [4] - Technical analysis suggests a strong bullish trend for oil, with potential upward movement towards $65, while key support is noted at $61.40 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices continued a volatile trend last week, with indications that the adjustment phase has ended, suggesting a high probability of upward movement this week towards the $5.33-$5.38 range [5] - A key support level for copper is identified at $5.11 [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index maintained a bullish trend last week, with a high probability of further increases, although signs of fatigue in the upward movement were noted [6] - A critical level to watch for the Nikkei 225 is the 49,350 mark, which serves as a dividing line for bullish and bearish sentiment [6]