晨光生物(300138)：Q3盈利亮眼 明年增长可期

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance for the first three quarters of 2025, with a decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit, indicating a potential recovery in profitability despite challenges in revenue growth [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.047 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.41%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 304 million, a year-on-year increase of 385.30% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.39 billion, down 19.88% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders was 88.86 million, up 338.68% year-on-year [1]. Segment Analysis - The plant extraction business generated revenue of 766 million in Q3 2025, an increase of 2.82% year-on-year, while the cottonseed business saw revenue drop to 588 million, a decline of 34.59% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in unit price [2]. - The plant extraction segment showed strong growth in specific products, with chili red application products' sales up 36% and chili extract market share expanding with sales up 87% [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 reached 16.11%, an increase of 10.56 percentage points year-on-year, with the plant extraction business gross margin at 22.26% and cottonseed gross margin at 7.80%, both showing continuous improvement [3]. - The net profit margin for Q3 was 6.39%, up 8.54 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a successful turnaround in profitability [3]. Market Dynamics - Supply of key raw materials for the main products, such as chili red and lutein, has decreased by over 10%, which may alleviate competitive pressures in the industry [4]. - Demand for natural plant extracts is expected to grow rapidly due to increased consumer awareness of food safety and regulatory changes banning synthetic colorants in the U.S. [4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued profit growth in the coming year, supported by expectations of price recovery and increased consumption [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 6.919 billion, 7.759 billion, and 8.480 billion, with net profits of 360 million, 441 million, and 551 million, corresponding to PE ratios of 19X, 16X, and 13X respectively [4].