信达证券：快递反内卷涨价成效显著 关注旺季盈利修复

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant recovery in performance due to a rise in single-package prices and an increase in business volume during the peak season, driven by the "anti-involution" trend in the industry [1][5]. Group 1: Business Volume - In September, the express delivery industry saw a year-on-year business volume growth of 12.7%, with SF Express leading at 31.81% [2]. - Cumulatively, from January to September, the total express delivery volume reached 1,450.8 billion packages, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [2]. - The business volume for major companies in September was as follows: YTO Express 2.627 billion packages, Shentong Express 2.187 billion packages, Yunda Express 2.110 billion packages, and SF Express 1.504 billion packages [2]. Group 2: Market Share - Cumulative market share from January to September shows YTO Express at 15.6%, Yunda Express at 13.2%, Shentong Express at 13.0%, and SF Express at 8.3%, with SF Express gaining 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Pricing Situation - The express delivery industry experienced a significant month-on-month price increase of 2.4% in September, with an average price of 7.55 yuan per package, down 4.9% year-on-year [4]. - For major companies in September, the average prices were: YTO Express 2.21 yuan, Yunda Express 2.02 yuan, Shentong Express 2.12 yuan, and SF Express 13.87 yuan [4]. - Cumulatively, from January to September, the average price for SF Express was 13.83 yuan, down 13.00% year-on-year [4]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The express delivery industry continues to show growth potential, with the "anti-involution" price increases proving effective, and attention should be paid to the upcoming peak season's volume and pricing dynamics [5]. - The expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce are expected to further enhance the penetration rate of online shopping, contributing to the growth of the express delivery sector [5].