新玩家入场，扫走75%的美债！中国持有的7781亿，无需担忧

Core Insights - China has significantly reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds, dropping from a peak of $1.3 trillion in 2020 to $778.1 billion by September this year, indicating a substantial decline in investment in US debt [3] - The Federal Reserve has also been reducing its balance sheet, which is now below $8 trillion, as part of its strategy to combat domestic inflation by selling off US Treasuries to manage dollar liquidity [3] Group 1: Reasons for China's Sell-off - Concerns over the sustainability of US debt, which has surpassed $33 trillion, far exceeding the projected GDP of $24.5 trillion for 2023, raising alarms about potential default risks [5] - Rising interest rates on US Treasuries, which have exceeded 5% recently, leading to annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, thereby straining the US government's debt repayment capacity [7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite the sell-off by foreign central banks, US individual investors, primarily hedge funds, have increased their holdings by $1.7 trillion, accounting for 75% of the market, indicating a shift in the buyer landscape [7] - The attractiveness of US Treasuries to American investors is driven by the current yield exceeding 4%, which contrasts sharply with the near-zero rates in the past, but concerns remain about the long-term sustainability of this trend [7][8] Group 3: Implications and Risks - China's strategy to sell US Treasuries is aimed at mitigating risks associated with US debt and optimizing its asset allocation, while the ability of US domestic investors to absorb the sell-off remains uncertain [8]