XIAOMI(HK:01810) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-27 04:47Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi Group's stock price has shown weakness, hitting a new low since April 2023, with analysts predicting mixed performance for the upcoming Q3 2025 earnings report, particularly due to lower smartphone margins and IoT revenue [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Forecast - Citigroup expects Xiaomi's adjusted net profit for Q3 to reach 10.2 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 64% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5% [1]. - Huatai Securities predicts Xiaomi's automotive business will turn profitable in Q3, with smartphone margins expected to remain around 11% despite rising memory prices [2]. - CICC forecasts a more optimistic scenario, estimating a 21.46% year-on-year revenue increase for Q3, reaching 112.36 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit expected to grow by 68.88% to 10.56 billion RMB [2]. Group 2: Automotive Business Performance - Citigroup anticipates that Xiaomi's automotive operations will achieve a profit of 722 million RMB in Q3, despite concerns about the second phase of production expansion [1]. - Huatai Securities reports that Xiaomi delivered over 40,000 vehicles in September, indicating a positive trend in automotive profitability as production capacity increases [2]. - CICC estimates that Xiaomi will deliver 109,000 vehicles in Q3, generating revenue of 29.43 billion RMB, driven by increased deliveries of the YU7 model and a rising average selling price [3]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi, with a target price slightly reduced to 65 HKD, citing unchanged long-term growth themes [1]. - Huatai Securities also maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 65.4 HKD, emphasizing the value of Xiaomi's IoT business and AI ecosystem [2].