“反内卷”叠加成本共振，全市场唯一钢铁ETF（515210）涨超2%

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing significant growth, with the only steel ETF (515210) rising over 2% and attracting over 100 million yuan in net inflows in the past five days [1][4]. Supply and Cost Dynamics - There is an expectation for a reduction in steel production capacity and output, driven by improved profitability in steel mills and a high level of iron production. The "Steel Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes the continuation of production reduction policies to balance supply and demand [3]. - The industry is expected to enter a phase of survival of the fittest, with a classification management system for steel companies to guide resources towards more competitive firms. Policies are anticipated to gradually take effect by 2026, leading to the exit of outdated production capacity [3]. - Iron ore supply is expected to become more favorable for the steel industry, particularly with the upcoming production from the West Simandou iron ore project, which is projected to reach an annual output of 120 million tons [3]. Market Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The steel sector is projected to see marginal improvements by 2025, with reduced demand drag and declining costs, alongside supportive "anti-involution" policies [4]. - The "anti-involution" policies are deemed necessary and are receiving high-level attention, which could lead to improved supply-demand dynamics in the industry [4]. - Steel prices have risen rapidly since Q3, with steel mills showing improved profitability, as indicated by an increase in profit margins from 59% in June to 64% in August [4]. - The only steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the steel manufacturing and processing sectors, covering the entire steel industry chain [4][5].