Group 1 - UBS sets a target price of HKD 33.5 for Zai Lab (09688) based on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, indicating 1x and 1.6x unadjusted/adjusted peak sales multiples [1] - UBS believes the market is overlooking Zai Lab's short-term growth potential, including the launch of VYVGART and new products, as well as the business development potential of DLL3ADC and ZL-1503 [1] - UBS expects VYVGART to continue expanding its indications and increasing sales, with several key candidate drugs anticipated to receive approval [1] Group 2 - UBS identifies VYVGART as a first-in-class FcRn drug with the potential to become a blockbuster in immunology, predicting peak sales in China to reach USD 1.8 billion [2] - Potential blockbuster candidates include Bemarituzumab for gastric cancer, Povetacicept for autoimmune diseases, VRDN-003 for thyroid eye disease, and KarXT for schizophrenia [2] - Zai Lab is expected to achieve profitability through revenue growth and operational efficiency improvements, with guidance for non-GAAP operational breakeven by Q4 2025 and for the full year 2026 [2] Group 3 - UBS believes that local manufacturing and reduced selling costs due to VYVGART's capacity expansion will improve overall gross margins [2] - The company plans to limit R&D spending growth by prioritizing high-value projects, while sales, general, and administrative expenses are expected to grow moderately [2]
瑞银：首予再鼎医药“买入”评级 近期具明确催化剂但被低估