就市论市丨美国9月CPI小幅回升至3% 为美联储降息铺平道路？

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that September inflation figures fell below expectations, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.3% month-over-month, lower than both August's increase and market expectations of 0.4% [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - The September CPI increased by 0.3%, which is lower than the 0.4% increase expected by the market and the previous month's increase [1] - The slight recovery in CPI data raises questions about the market's expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting remains high at over 95% [1] - Despite the high probability of a rate cut, the Federal Reserve has not yet halted its balance sheet reduction plan, indicating that it has not fully entered a loose monetary policy phase and is maintaining a neutral to hawkish stance [1] - Some Federal Reserve officials have suggested that they may consider stopping the balance sheet reduction as key economic data shows signs of weakness [1]