国投智能(300188)：业绩短期承压 新签订单增长良好

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and an increase in losses for the first three quarters of 2025, but new order growth and advancements in AI products provide a foundation for future recovery [1][2][3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 795 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.39%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 366 million yuan, with losses widening by 51.16% [1]. - In Q3 2025, revenue was 238 million yuan, down 31.88% year-on-year, with a net loss of 157 million yuan, an increase in losses by 37.77% [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 35.00%, a decline of 5.73 percentage points, primarily due to reduced client budgets and intensified market competition [1]. Cost Management - The company has effectively controlled expenses, with total sales, management, and R&D expenses decreasing by approximately 11.91% year-on-year [1]. - Cash received from sales and services for the first three quarters was 1.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.25%, indicating improved revenue quality [1]. Order Growth and AI Product Development - New orders signed in the first three quarters increased by 23% year-on-year, supporting future performance recovery [2]. - The company has strengthened its competitiveness in AI products, with the Tianqing public safety model being the first in the domestic public safety sector to pass both algorithm and generative AI service registrations [2]. Emerging Business Expansion - Revenue from emerging businesses such as digital government and enterprise digitalization showed positive growth year-on-year [3]. - The company has successfully secured projects in low-altitude economy and rural revitalization sectors, enhancing its market share [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been reduced by 13%, 15%, and 15% to 1.715 billion yuan, 1.868 billion yuan, and 2.088 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The target price has been adjusted to 17.96 yuan, reflecting the company's accelerated entry into the commercialization phase of AI products [4].