中美关系释放缓和信号，恒生创新药ETF(159316)备受关注

Core Insights - Recent signals of easing tensions in US-China relations, combined with the onset of the fourth quarter's business development (BD) peak for innovative drugs, suggest a potential recovery in market sentiment for the sector [1] - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index has undergone adjustments and may have entered a phase of bottoming out, highlighting increasing investment value [1] Industry Dynamics - ESMO 2025 Achievements: Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies made significant strides at the ESMO conference, with a record 35 studies selected for oral presentations and 23 for breakthrough abstracts, covering prevalent cancers such as liver cancer, lung cancer, and lymphoma, showcasing their R&D capabilities from bispecific antibodies to antibody-drug conjugates [1] - BD Cooperation Resurgence: A major collaboration was established between Innovent Biologics and Takeda, involving an upfront payment of $1.2 billion and a total deal size of up to $11.4 billion, reflecting global pharmaceutical companies' recognition of Chinese innovative drugs. Historically, the fourth quarter has been a peak period for BD activities, and this year is expected to continue that trend [1] - Global Interest Rate Cycle: Historically, during the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycles, the valuation of Hong Kong innovative drug assets tends to expand, and a favorable liquidity environment supports financing and R&D investments for innovative drug companies. According to Fedwatch, there is a high probability of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1]