恐怖数据曝光！1/3美国经济体暴毙，密歇根只是第一张多米诺骨牌

Economic Overview - Approximately 22 states in the U.S. are in recession or on the brink of it, accounting for one-third of the national economy [1] - The U.S. economy appears stable on the surface but is experiencing significant internal division, with California and New York being critical to determining whether the country will enter a recession [1][11] GDP and Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1, marking the first negative growth in three years, raising alarms in the market [3] - Michigan, once a hub for the automotive industry, is facing economic difficulties due to ongoing tariff impacts, despite positive financial reports from General Motors and Ford [3] Employment Trends - Nearly 700,000 layoffs have occurred in the U.S. in the first five months of 2025, an 80% increase year-on-year, nearing the total for the entire year of 2024 [5] - Job cuts are prevalent across various sectors, including construction, manufacturing, technology, and finance, with healthcare and hospitality being the only sectors still hiring [5] Government Shutdown Impact - The federal government shutdown starting October 1 has forced around 800,000 federal employees into unpaid leave, with over 70,000 working without pay [7] - The shutdown has delayed the release of important employment data and consumer price index reports, limiting the Federal Reserve's decision-making resources [7] Tariff Policies - The average effective tariff rate faced by U.S. consumers has reached 17.9%, the highest since 1934, significantly impacting consumer prices [9] - Economists predict that new tariffs could reduce GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points and increase inflation by 1.1 percentage points by 2025 [8] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence is declining, and spending is slowing, with many middle- and low-income families struggling despite stable employment [11] - California and New York, which together account for over 20% of the national economy, are under pressure to maintain growth [11][12] Global Economic Context - The International Monetary Fund forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth, with the U.S. expected to follow suit as a leading developed economy [14] - The U.S. economy is at a crossroads, facing significant challenges from trade policies, government shutdowns, and employment pressures, but there is potential for stabilization if key states can maintain their economic footing [16]