Amazon(US:AMZN) 智通财经网·2025-10-27 07:54Core Viewpoint - Amazon is set to release its Q3 earnings on October 30, with expectations of revenue reaching $177.8 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.98, alongside an operating profit of $19.8 billion and a gross margin of 50% [1] Performance Review - In Q2, Amazon reported total revenue of $167.7 billion, exceeding market expectations of $162.09 billion, with earnings per share of $1.68, surpassing the forecast of $1.33 [2] - E-commerce sales accounted for two-thirds of total sales, with Q2 revenue from online stores and third-party sellers both growing by 11% [4] - Amazon has expanded its same-day and next-day delivery services to 4,000 small areas and has formed new brand partnerships, including with Estée Lauder's Origins and a dedicated Nike store [4] - The company has optimized its regional distribution centers, resulting in a 40% year-over-year increase in orders from fulfillment centers directly to delivery, a 12% reduction in average shipping distance, and a nearly 15% decrease in unit package handling [4] - AWS revenue grew by 17.5% year-over-year to $30.9 billion, while advertising revenue increased by 23% to $15.69 billion [4] - Despite AWS's leadership in the cloud infrastructure market, concerns about its growth rate compared to competitors have led to a decline in stock price following disappointing Q3 revenue guidance [4][9] Performance Outlook - Analysts predict Q3 revenue for AWS to reach $32.4 billion with an operating profit of $11.1 billion, while the profit margin is expected to rise from 32.9% in Q2 to 34.2% in Q3 [9] - There is significant variation in analyst estimates for AWS profit margins, ranging from 30.7% to 38.1% [9] - The market is closely monitoring Amazon's investments in AI, with concerns about its competitive position against Google, Microsoft, Oracle, and others [9] - Analysts from Wedbush express optimism about AWS's future demand based on order backlog growth and increased capital expenditure guidance for 2025 [10] - Bank of America analysts anticipate improved sentiment towards AWS as 2026 approaches, highlighting several positive factors including the "Rainier project" and potential announcements at the December re:Invent conference [10] - UBS analysts project a baseline growth expectation of 18% for AWS in Q3, with a cautious outlook for a rebound in growth [11] Additional Catalysts - Amazon plans to replace 600,000 jobs with robots by 2033 to reduce operational costs, which has positively impacted stock prices [12] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley highlight the potential cost savings from new generation robotic warehouses, emphasizing the market's underestimation of Amazon's advancements in generative AI [12] - The advertising business is expected to show strong growth potential and profitability, with Benchmark analysts confident in Amazon's ability to become a market leader in this area [12]