通胀未达标，美联储降息为何不会手软？

Core Viewpoint - Despite the high inflation rate of 3% in September, the market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will proceed with an interest rate cut next week, raising questions about the rationale behind this decision given the persistent inflation above the target level since January 2021 [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The current benchmark interest rate of 4%-4.25% is seen as high and is believed to be suppressing economic growth, leading to a consensus among economists that a policy shift is necessary [2] - The Federal Reserve's focus has shifted from inflation concerns to the state of the labor market, with many officials now prioritizing employment issues over inflation [2] Group 2: Employment Market - The U.S. employment market has shown signs of significant weakness, with private sector job growth nearly stagnating, averaging only 29,000 new jobs per month over the last three months compared to 209,000 in the last three months of the previous year [3][4] - Trade uncertainties have led companies to slow down hiring, and when unable to pass on tariff costs to consumers, they often resort to layoffs, as evidenced by General Motors announcing layoffs of 200 employees [4] Group 3: Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government has been in a shutdown since October 1, causing delays in the release of key economic data, including monthly employment figures and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [5] - Despite the data gap, the Federal Reserve has indicated that the core trends, such as employment weakness, remain unchanged, and the uncertainty in economic outlook is still high [6] Group 4: Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is a divergence of opinions regarding the likelihood of a rate cut in December, with some economists believing that the rationale for the October cut will persist, while others express caution due to signs of rising inflation risks [7] - The decision for a potential December rate cut will heavily depend on forthcoming economic data, with the ongoing government shutdown complicating the availability of official data [7]