Zheshang Securities(SH:601878) 智通财经网·2025-10-27 08:20Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates that the "severe cold wave" has led to increased heating demand, resulting in a non-seasonal increase in daily coal consumption, with power plant inventories gradually depleting and insufficient time for replenishment. The report anticipates that coal prices could reach 800 yuan/ton due to supply constraints and safety regulations, with a potential supply-demand gap leading to localized coal shortages in certain periods. The outlook for the fourth quarter suggests a gradual balance in supply and demand, with coal prices expected to rise steadily, maintaining a "positive" rating for the industry [1]. Group 1: Coal Market Data - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.34 million tons for the week of October 17-23, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 4.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. Among these, thermal coal sales increased by 4.9% week-on-week, while coking coal and anthracite sales rose by 2.8% and 0.2%, respectively [2]. - As of October 23, 2025, the average daily coal production from key monitored enterprises was 7.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 2%. The total coal inventory (including port stocks) was 23.04 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.6% [2]. Group 2: Price Trends - As of October 24, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim region was 684 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.59%. The import price index for electric coal was 884 yuan/ton, up 5.11% week-on-week [3]. - For coking coal, the main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1,740 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3%. The price of coking coal futures settled at 1,251.5 yuan/ton, up 5.66% week-on-week [4]. Group 3: Chemical Coal Market - As of October 24, 2025, the price of anthracite coal in Yangquan was 880 yuan/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The methanol market price in East China was 2,268.18 yuan/ton, down 23.86 yuan/ton week-on-week [5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on flexible thermal coal companies and those in turnaround situations in the coking coal and coke sectors. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua (601088.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) among others in the thermal coal sector [6][7].