通威股份(600438)：Q3业绩环比减亏 经营现金流回正

Company Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 24.09 billion yuan, with a year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.6% and 2.0% respectively, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.31 billion yuan, improving from losses of 0.53 billion yuan and 2.05 billion yuan in the previous periods [1] - The company's operating cash flow significantly improved, reaching 4.78 billion yuan in Q3 2025, indicating a notable enhancement in operational quality [1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had sufficient cash reserves, with total cash and financial assets amounting to 34.77 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% quarter-on-quarter [1] Silicon Material Business - The profitability of the silicon material business showed significant recovery in Q3, driven by the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts, which are expected to lead to a continuous recovery in silicon material prices [1][2] - As of the end of September 2025, the average price of N-type dense silicon material was 49,700 yuan per ton, a 56% increase from the end of June 2025, aiding in the recovery of previous inventory losses [1][2] - The reduction in electricity prices during the abundant water period in regions like Yunnan and Sichuan, along with production process optimizations, is expected to further lower production costs [1] Industry Outlook - The silicon material sector is viewed as a key focus for the photovoltaic "anti-involution" strategy, which aims to eliminate outdated production capacity through energy consumption control and capacity storage [2] - The National Standardization Administration's draft on energy consumption limits for polysilicon and germanium products indicates tightening energy consumption standards, which may support the structural adjustment of polysilicon capacity [2] - The domestic photovoltaic market saw a total of 240.27 GW of new installations in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 49%, although Q3 2025 installations dropped by 52% due to weakened demand following a rush to install [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at -6.182 billion yuan, 3.571 billion yuan, and 5.132 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of -1.37, 0.79, and 1.14 yuan [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing supply-side reforms in the silicon material sector, with a stable dual leadership position in silicon material and battery production [3] - A target price of 31.66 yuan is set for 2026, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.08x, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 25.39 yuan [3]