wanhua(SH:600309) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-27 08:29Core Viewpoint - Wanhua Chemical reported Q3 revenue of 53.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.52% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.48%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.03 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.96% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.20% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 144.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.29%, and a net profit of 9.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.45% [1] - The Q3 net profit aligns with the forecasted expectation of approximately 3 billion yuan [1] - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 13.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9 percentage points [2] Group 2: Segment Performance - The sales volume for polyurethane, petrochemicals, and new materials in the first three quarters were 4.58 million tons, 4.60 million tons, and 1.84 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 12%, 13%, and 30% [2] - The average product prices for these segments saw year-on-year declines of 9%, 15%, and 8%, resulting in average prices of 12,000 yuan/ton, 12,900 yuan/ton, and 12,900 yuan/ton [2] - The Q3 sales volume for polyurethane, petrochemicals, and new materials were 1.55 million tons, 1.75 million tons, and 650,000 tons, with corresponding revenues of 18.3 billion yuan, 24.4 billion yuan, and 8.2 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The polyurethane segment's prices for pure MDI, polymeric MDI, and TDI changed by +5%, -9%, and -9% respectively, indicating weak downstream demand [3] - The petrochemical segment's price differentials for propylene/propane and ethylene/ethane decreased by 5% and 10% respectively, suggesting ongoing challenges in market conditions [3] - The new materials segment showed signs of price stabilization for PC, although the overall segment remains under pressure [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its 2025 net profit forecast to 12.29 billion yuan, a reduction of 11% from the previous estimate of 13.78 billion yuan, while maintaining the 2026-2027 profit forecasts at 17.78 billion yuan and 20.81 billion yuan respectively [4] - The expected net profit growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are -6%, +45%, and +17% respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.93 yuan, 5.68 yuan, and 6.65 yuan per share [4] - The target price for 2026 is set at 79.52 yuan, based on a 14x PE ratio, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 74.8 yuan [4]