Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-10-27 08:44Core Viewpoint - The coal market in 2025 experienced a significant contrast between the first and second halves, with a recovery in electricity demand leading to a tightening supply-demand balance and a subsequent rise in coal prices. The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations for coal prices to exceed 800 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [1][2][3]. Group 1: 2025 Coal Market Analysis - The first half of 2025 saw a decline in coal prices due to weather-related demand issues and high inventory levels from significant coal imports and domestic production, with prices dropping below 800, 770, 700, and 650 yuan/ton [2]. - From June 2025 onwards, electricity demand surged during the summer peak, with total electricity consumption recovering by 4.6% as of August, contradicting previous pessimistic market expectations [1][2]. - The implementation of "overproduction checks" since July has led to a noticeable reduction in domestic coal production, resulting in a tighter supply-demand balance and a reversal of the supply-demand dynamics compared to the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The company holds a very optimistic view for the new coal upcycle beginning in 2026, driven primarily by demand, with supply playing a supportive role [3]. - Emerging sectors such as AI, renewable energy, and urban electricity demand are expected to contribute significantly to new electricity consumption, maintaining a growth rate of over 5% [3]. - The decline in new installations of solar power since June 2025, coupled with a shift in government policy towards more targeted support for wind and nuclear power, may lead to increased pressure on new installations, stabilizing total electricity demand and allowing for a recovery in coal-fired power demand [3]. Group 3: Global Energy Perspective - The global energy outlook is bullish, driven by deep electrification in industrial sectors, rapid expansion of data centers due to AI, and extreme weather impacts from climate change, leading to unexpected growth in global electricity demand [4]. - In developed countries, the reliance on renewable energy and outdated grid systems is creating a mismatch in supply, necessitating coal to continue playing a stabilizing role in energy supply [4]. - The coal market in developed countries, particularly in the U.S., has begun to recover, marking the first significant increase in usage in the past decade [4].