Group 1 - The new cycle for uranium is driven by three factors: sustained demand upgrades, tight midstream (conversion/enrichment) capacity, and a decline in secondary supply proportion, leading to a structurally tight balance [1] - The uranium industry is characterized by being technology-intensive and highly concentrated, with a few large companies controlling the upstream and midstream segments, significantly impacting the supply to downstream nuclear power plants [1] - Nuclear energy currently contributes 10% of global electricity generation, with 25% in Europe and 20% in the United States, making it a crucial source of power [1] Group 2 - According to WNA, global uranium concentrate supply and demand is expected to be barely balanced from 2025 to 2027, with a projected gap widening from -6 million pounds in 2026 to -14 million pounds by 2029 [2] - Secondary supply is expected to account for 13% of global reactor demand in 2025, but primary supply is anticipated to decline to 6% in the long term [2] - The conversion segment is facing ongoing shortages, while enrichment is experiencing regional gaps due to the de-Russification policies in Europe and North America, with an estimated enrichment gap of 30% by 2030 [2]
第一上海：铀迎来发展新周期 需持续关注重点公司机会