本周前瞻：央行决议超级周聚焦美联储降息

Core Viewpoint - This week marks the last week of October, featuring a "super week" of central bank decisions, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision being the focal point. Other central banks, including the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank, will also announce their rate decisions. A series of important economic data will be released, including GDP figures from the Eurozone and Germany, as well as the U.S. GDP and core PCE price index. The earnings reports from major tech companies such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon will also be significant events that could impact global financial markets [1]. Economic Data and Events Summary - Monday: Focus on Germany's IFO Business Climate Index, which may show a second consecutive month of slowdown, indicating further challenges for the German economy. The U.S. will release September durable goods orders data, with investors watching for a continuation of the previous mild growth trend. The Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for October is expected to remain negative, reflecting ongoing low business activity in the region [3]. - Tuesday: Attention will be on the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October, with expectations that it may further decline to around 90, reflecting consumer concerns about the economic outlook. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will also be monitored for signs of continued pressure on U.S. manufacturing [4]. - Wednesday: The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, with a high probability (over 86%) of a 25 basis point cut, bringing the benchmark policy rate down to 2.25%. This follows unexpected inflation rise (September CPI at 2.4%) and warnings from the central bank governor about economic risks [6]. - Thursday: The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut amid a lack of significant economic signals due to the recent government shutdown. The decision is anticipated to create notable market volatility. The Bank of Japan will also announce its rate decision, with new uncertainties introduced by the recent election of Prime Minister Suga. The Eurozone and Germany's Q3 GDP data will be closely watched, with the Eurozone needing to maintain over 1% annual growth to support optimistic economic outlooks [7][9]. - Friday: The Eurozone will release CPI data, expected to remain at 2.2%, above the ECB's target. The U.S. core PCE price index for September will also be released, with market attention on whether it remains around 3%. Any unexpected data could lead to market fluctuations [10][11].