美联储2026年降息剧本：连续行动的预期或落空？

Core Viewpoint - Financial markets are anticipating a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations that rates will drop to the range of 2.75% to 3.0% by the end of 2026, down from the current 4% to 4.25% [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - Futures traders are betting on a clear downward trend in interest rates, while options markets have incorporated this scenario into pricing [2] - Analysts from major financial institutions, including Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, predict multiple rate cuts in the coming months due to a slowing economy and easing inflation [1][2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Perspective - The Federal Reserve's officials have a more cautious outlook, projecting a 2026 year-end rate of 3.4%, which is significantly higher than market expectations [2] - The Fed's dual mandate of "maximum employment and price stability" does not signal an urgent need for aggressive rate cuts, with core inflation expected to remain above the target [2][3] Group 3: Changes in Federal Reserve Composition - The Federal Reserve will see new members next year, which could reshape policy discussions, particularly with the potential for a new chairperson following Powell's term [4] - The ongoing legal disputes involving Fed officials add another layer of uncertainty to the voting balance within the board [4] Group 4: Regional Federal Reserve Presidents - The voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will include a mix of pragmatic and hawkish officials, indicating that rate cuts may not follow a predetermined schedule [5][6] - Concerns about inflation and economic growth are prevalent among regional Fed presidents, with some advocating for a cautious approach to further rate cuts [6] Group 5: Economic Challenges Ahead - The economic backdrop for 2026 presents challenges, including potential inflationary pressures from tariffs and signs of slowing consumer spending [6] - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with rising unemployment and increased layoffs, which could lead to more rate cuts if the trend continues [6] Group 6: Diverging Views on Rate Cuts - Some analysts believe there will only be one rate cut in 2026, suggesting a "cut-pause-reassess" cycle rather than a continuous decline as priced in by the market [7] - The anticipated rate cuts may occur in a staggered manner, with a total reduction of 0.75 percentage points expected by early next year [7]