大跌之后的黄金，短期不再成为一个“性价比高的全球资产”

Core Viewpoint - Recent volatility in gold prices has led to a significant downturn after a two-month surge, prompting investors to reconsider their strategies [1][3] Short-term Outlook - Gold is currently not a wise investment choice due to high leverage in gold ETFs and a crowded "long gold" trade, leading to rapid price declines from historical highs [1][3] - Investors are advised to wait for gold prices to reach the $3,800-$3,900 per ounce range for potential buying opportunities [1][9] Long-term Outlook - A quantitative model indicates that the gold price center is projected to be $4,814 per ounce by 2026, suggesting that gold still holds long-term investment value [2][10] - The model is based on macroeconomic indicators, with a neutral assumption placing the price center at $3,886 per ounce in the second half of 2025, reinforcing the $3,800-$3,900 range as a significant support level [9][10] Investment Strategy - For short-term trading funds, the best strategy is to remain on the sidelines until volatility decreases significantly, as trading in high-volatility environments yields lower profit margins [3][4] - Long-term investors should look for opportunities to accumulate positions in the $3,800-$3,900 per ounce range, which is identified as a fundamental support level [3][9] Market Dynamics - Historical analysis shows that a return to low volatility is a prerequisite for the initiation of new upward or downward trends in gold prices [4][10] - The ongoing trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to continue, particularly in light of rising debt risks in developed markets [10]