Core Viewpoint - The A-share innovation index ended the third quarter with a 49.02% increase, but the fourth quarter faces multiple variables, including renewed US-China trade tensions, fluctuating expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and the approaching "accounting period" for institutions, leading experts to warn of increased risks while maintaining a "slow bull" market outlook [1][2][5]. Market Trends - Experts agree that the "slow bull" market pattern remains intact, but opportunities for easy gains are diminishing, and volatility is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter [2][3]. Fund Flow and Market Sentiment - Current market conditions show that retail investors have not entered the market on a large scale, and institutions remain hesitant, indicating that the core logic of the slow bull market is still valid. However, the previous trend of "buying the right sectors to make big profits" is unlikely to be replicated in the fourth quarter, with faster sector rotations expected [3][4]. Macro Perspective - From a macroeconomic perspective, the underlying factors supporting the slow bull market, such as marginal improvements in corporate profits and continued policy support for new consumption and high-end manufacturing, remain unchanged. Short-term events like trade policies and Federal Reserve interest rate changes are seen as catalysts rather than trends [4][5]. Identified Risks - Two major risks for the fourth quarter have been highlighted: 1. The "accounting period selling pressure" from absolute return funds, particularly affecting high-valuation sectors like technology and new consumption [6]. 2. Increasing divergence in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, which could impact global asset pricing and lead to volatility in A-shares and other markets [6][8]. Investment Strategies - Experts recommend a balanced approach to investment, emphasizing "long-term views with short-term actions" and a "barbell strategy" to manage risk and returns. This involves allocating to both high-valuation sectors with long-term potential and low-valuation defensive assets [9][10]. - Monthly portfolio reviews and clear definitions of acceptable drawdown limits are advised to avoid impulsive trading decisions [10]. Focus Areas for Investment - Investors are encouraged to focus on three asset categories: 1. New consumption and high-end manufacturing sectors benefiting from policy support 2. Low-valuation high-dividend assets in Hong Kong and A-share markets 3. Safe-haven assets like gold ETFs and public REITs [10][11]. Conclusion - The fourth quarter is characterized as a period of volatility within a slow bull market, requiring investors to enhance their asset allocation skills and maintain a focus on managing drawdowns while seizing structural opportunities [10][11].
慢牛中段的四季度 A 股 重点警惕做账卖压及美联储政策分歧
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-27 09:20