Group 1: Gold Market - Gold is currently experiencing a downward trend, with signs of deterioration in its price pattern due to potential concessions from the U.S. on tariff issues, which may reduce safe-haven demand [1] - Recent statements from U.S. Treasury Secretary indicate optimism regarding U.S.-China negotiations, suggesting that the imposition of new tariffs may be reconsidered, which could further impact gold prices negatively [1] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are facing resistance around $4095, with a likelihood of further declines in the short term [1] Group 2: Oil Market - India's cessation of Russian oil purchases may lead to increased buying from other oil-producing countries, providing weak support for oil prices [2] - Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, has stopped purchasing approximately 629,590 barrels of Russian oil daily, indicating a shift in sourcing for crude oil imports [2] - The halt in Russian oil purchases could disrupt the supply chain for Europe, which may need to seek alternative energy imports [2] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The focus of global financial markets is on the Federal Reserve and other central banks, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in December due to recent inflation data [3] - The latest CPI data shows U.S. core inflation at 3%, with a slowdown in growth, creating conditions favorable for a rate cut [3] - The dollar index is showing weak upward momentum, with significant resistance from long-term moving averages [3] Group 4: Market Events and Data - California Governor Newsom has officially acknowledged his presidential campaign intentions [5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary has confirmed that the U.S. is no longer considering imposing 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, indicating a significant development in trade relations [5] - Scope Ratings has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating to AA- [5]
智昇黄金原油分析：关税接近尾声 谨防避险消退
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-27 09:48