邓正红能源软实力：俄原油出口制裁后反增12.8% 验证制裁仅改变贸易流向非总量

Core Insights - Oil prices surged by over 7% in a single week, reaching a six-month high, driven by the dual impact of Western sanctions on Russia and easing US-China trade tensions [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent volatility in oil prices reflects a shift from resource control to expectation-driven market dynamics, indicating a new phase in global energy soft power competition [1][3] - The European Union and the United States announced new sanctions targeting major Russian oil companies, which control over 70% of Russia's oil production capacity and 55% of its oil exports, potentially affecting around 2 million barrels per day [2][4] - The market's reaction to sanctions shows that changes in rules can trigger price fluctuations more significantly than actual supply and demand changes [1][4] Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Implications - In the short term, Brent crude oil is expected to fluctuate within the $60 to $70 per barrel range as the market assesses the real impact of sanctions [5] - Long-term factors include a persistent oversupply in the global market, with the IEA predicting a surplus of 4 million barrels per day by 2026, and the adaptability of Russia's oil export strategies [5] - The sanctions are likely to alter trade flows and increase transaction costs rather than significantly reduce the total volume of Russian oil exports [4][5] Group 3: Soft Power Theory Application - The concept of soft power is crucial for understanding current oil price fluctuations, emphasizing the balance between implicit rules and tangible resources [3][5] - The competition for energy soft power has transitioned from traditional resource control to the reconstruction of rules, with oil-producing countries signaling "controllable supply" through policy adjustments [3][5] - The effectiveness of sanctions is limited, as historical precedents show that the actual supply losses from sanctions are often lower than initially anticipated [4]