美债突破38万亿美元，为什么不用还？还欠中国多少钱？

Core Viewpoint - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, raising questions about the sustainability of this debt and the implications for global investors, particularly China [2][9]. Group 1: U.S. National Debt Dynamics - The U.S. government continues to issue new debt to pay off old debt, leveraging the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency [3][7]. - Approximately 90% of global trade is settled in U.S. dollars, creating a strong demand for U.S. Treasury bonds among global investors [5][6]. - The U.S. Treasury does not need to deplete its reserves to repay the $38 trillion; it can simply roll over the debt as long as global confidence in the dollar remains intact [7][11]. Group 2: Risks and Challenges - The first significant risk is the "debt ceiling crisis," where political disagreements in Congress could lead to government shutdowns, potentially undermining confidence in U.S. debt [9]. - The second risk involves the rapid growth of debt outpacing economic growth, which could threaten the credibility of the dollar if interest payments become unsustainable [11]. Group 3: China's Position and Strategy - China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. debt while increasing its gold reserves, reflecting a strategy to diversify its foreign exchange reserves [11][13]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum globally, with countries seeking to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [15][29]. Group 4: Alternatives to the Dollar - Potential alternatives to the dollar include the Chinese yuan, but its adoption as a global reserve currency could have negative implications for China's economy [17][20]. - Gold is considered a stable asset, but its limited supply makes it impractical as a global currency base [22][24]. - Encouraging direct currency settlements between countries is another approach, but it does not address fundamental trade imbalances [25][27]. Group 5: Future Implications - The ongoing exploration of alternatives to the dollar and the evolving role of central banks could lead to a more equitable and stable international monetary system [29].