【首席观察】CPI降了，金价却跌了，黄金还能买吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to a combination of favorable economic data and easing trade tensions between the US and China, despite expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][5]. Economic Data Impact - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 3%, with core CPI dropping to 0.2%, all below market expectations [2]. - Following the CPI release, gold prices fell from $4124 per ounce to $4112 per ounce, and further declined by 1.54% by October 27 [2]. Market Dynamics - Despite the drop in gold prices, there was a significant net inflow of over $4.3 billion into international spot gold on October 24, indicating that capital is not fleeing the gold market in panic [3][4]. - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, saw its holdings increase by 28 tons to 1046.93 tons, reflecting a stable interest in gold despite short-term price fluctuations [4]. Shifts in Investment Strategy - The current macroeconomic environment is shifting the role of funds, with reduced uncertainty leading to a change in investment strategies. Investors are now viewing gold as a hedge against future interest rate cuts rather than solely as a safe haven [5][6]. - The demand for gold's short-term safe-haven attributes is weakening due to reduced geopolitical risks, while its interest rate attributes are becoming more pronounced [6]. Historical Context and Future Projections - Historical patterns suggest that gold's price dynamics are transitioning from being a simple safe-haven asset to a more complex "super-sovereign currency" with multiple attributes [6][7]. - The analysis indicates that in times of peak uncertainty, gold's safe-haven properties may outperform other assets, while in periods of clear policy direction, its monetary attributes may take precedence [7][10]. Current Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a weak equilibrium state, with gold prices facing resistance at $4124 per ounce and support around $4000 per ounce [10][12]. - Analysts are divided on the outlook for gold prices, with some viewing current price corrections as buying opportunities, while others warn of potential deeper declines [10][12].