铜资源，仍被低估的长期价值机会

Core Viewpoint - The increasing global demand for gold and copper is driven by their scarcity and unique financial properties, alongside factors such as de-dollarization, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, and escalating geopolitical tensions. The price of gold is projected to rise significantly, with copper also expected to reach new highs due to supply-demand imbalances and strategic resource needs [3][5]. Group 1: Gold and Copper Market Dynamics - The price of gold is anticipated to exceed $5,000 in the coming years, reflecting its strategic value as a scarce resource [3]. - International copper prices have risen over 25% this year, surpassing $11,000 per ton, and are expected to approach $15,000 due to tightening supply-demand dynamics [5][6]. - The shift towards physical assets, driven by low interest rates and inflation concerns, positions strategic resources like gold and copper as optimal investment choices [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors for Copper - By 2025, global refined copper demand is projected to reach 27.29 million tons, with a growth rate of 2.5%-2.8%, while supply growth is only expected to be 1.1%, leading to a supply gap of approximately 100,000 tons [6][8]. - The electricity sector is the largest consumer of copper, accounting for 45%-48% of total demand, driven by infrastructure upgrades in China and aging grids in developed markets [7]. - Emerging markets, particularly India, are expected to see significant increases in copper demand due to urbanization and infrastructure development, with forecasts suggesting a 13% year-on-year growth in 2024 [7]. Group 3: Challenges in Copper Supply - Global copper production faces challenges from supply disruptions and declining ore grades, which have decreased from 0.81% in 2000 to 0.45% in 2023, leading to increased extraction costs [8]. - Major copper mines are experiencing production downgrades, and new mining projects require copper prices to remain above $10,500 per ton to be profitable [8]. - Geopolitical risks and environmental policies in key producing countries may further restrict copper supply, exacerbating the anticipated demand-supply gap [8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Copper - Companies with significant copper resources, such as Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper, are well-positioned to benefit from rising copper prices, with Zijin Mining reporting a 55.4% increase in net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 [9]. - Investment strategies should focus on resource-rich companies and consider ETFs that track copper-related indices to capture potential price increases [9]. - A balanced investment approach could involve a mix of 70% resource leaders and 30% growth-oriented processing companies to mitigate risks associated with individual stocks [9].