印度劳动力市场迎来黄金期，但人工智能与贸易挑战在前

Core Insights - India's employment market is experiencing a rare high point, with employment growth surpassing the growth of the working-age population for the first time since the fiscal year 2021-22, and urban unemployment rates dropping to the lowest level since 2017-18 [1] Employment Growth Highlights - Employment growth has outpaced population growth, with rapid expansion in self-employment and micro-entrepreneurship in rural and semi-urban areas [3] - The female employment rate has significantly increased, with notable improvements in participation rates among rural and urban women [3] - Urban unemployment rate stands at 6.6%, while youth unemployment remains high at 13.3% [3] - Despite positive data, structural issues persist in the Indian employment market, with only 23% of non-agricultural jobs classified as formal employment, and many jobs remaining informal or self-employed, posing challenges for women and youth [3] Risks from AI and Trade - The report warns that technological disruptions, rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, and global trade fragmentation may impact India's labor market [4] - Generative AI has led to a decline of approximately 20% in hiring for business services and IT [4] - Protectionist policies from the US and China could weaken India's export industries, affecting key sectors such as textiles, electronics, and pharmaceuticals [4] - While low-skilled labor in India is temporarily protected, the digital skills gap is widening, with individuals possessing AI and digital skills earning about 30% more than average white-collar workers [4] Future Directions: From Quantity to Quality - The World Bank suggests that India should shift focus from the quantity of employment to improving the quality of jobs [5] - Recommendations include expanding formal employment by simplifying labor regulations and supporting small and medium enterprises to create formal positions [5] - Enhancing female participation through investments in childcare, transportation, and flexible work arrangements is advised [5] - Establishing a digital skills training system to prepare youth for the upcoming challenges of automation in the age of AI is essential [5] Trade Diversification - Reducing reliance on a single market is crucial to address global protectionism [6] Regional Balanced Development - There is a need to direct employment-intensive investments to underdeveloped regions [7] - The report highlights that while the recovery of India's labor market demonstrates strong resilience, the real challenge lies in ensuring that these job opportunities are of high quality, formalized, and future-oriented, thereby transforming India's demographic dividend into long-term, inclusive economic growth [7]