金价创纪录后，金店销售人员却称：金条卖不动了！为什么会出现这种情况？

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a paradox in the gold market where gold prices have surged to record highs, yet gold bar sales have plummeted, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and investment strategies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have reached a new high of $4,150 per ounce, reflecting a 58% increase year-to-date, while domestic gold jewelry prices have risen to 1,215 yuan per gram, up 400 yuan since the beginning of the year [1][3]. - Despite the high prices, gold bar sales have drastically declined, with only 27 transactions recorded in the first 27 days of October, resulting in sales of just over 250 million yuan, a significant drop compared to the average monthly sales earlier in the year [3][5]. Group 2: Factors Behind Declining Sales - The high and volatile gold prices have deterred investors, with bank gold bars priced at 992 yuan per gram, leading to a nearly 40,000 yuan increase for a 100-gram purchase compared to the start of the year [5][6]. - Economic factors such as a 0.7% decline in national retail sales and a high unemployment rate of 7.1% have led consumers to tighten their spending [6][7]. - Increased investment options, including lower bank note rates and the rise of stable investment products like bond funds, have diverted funds away from gold [7][9]. Group 3: Market Segmentation and Consumer Behavior - The decline in gold bar sales has resulted in a bifurcation in the market, with traditional gold retailers facing pressure, exemplified by the closure of 297 stores by Lao Feng Xiang and a 63% drop in net profit for Zhou Da Sheng [9][11]. - Conversely, high-end brands are thriving, with Lao Pu Gold adopting a luxury strategy and achieving annual sales of 240 million yuan per store [9][11]. - Consumers are shifting towards alternatives, such as renting jewelry for weddings and purchasing cheaper gold bars from wholesale markets, indicating a change in investment logic [9][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the current sales slump, institutions remain bullish on gold, with forecasts from JPMorgan predicting prices could reach $5,055 per ounce by the end of 2026, and Goldman Sachs estimating $4,900 [11][15]. - The ongoing demand from global central banks, including a net purchase of 894 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, and China's continuous accumulation of gold for 11 months, suggests a sustained long-term interest in gold as a hedge against inflation [15].