Ge Long Hui·2025-10-27 11:36Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock pharmaceutical sectors have shown significant structural differentiation in 2023, with innovative drugs recovering in valuation due to policy relaxation and global collaboration, while the vaccine sub-sector lags behind due to price wars and a shrinking infant vaccination population, presenting an opportunity for investment in undervalued vaccine stocks [1] Industry Logic - The lagging performance of vaccine stocks creates a "catch-up" opportunity driven by four interrelated factors: performance cycles, valuation levels, product iteration, and market space [2] - The year 2024 is seen as a "stress test year" for the vaccine industry, with a significant decline in revenue and profit due to homogenized competition and price wars, but signs of recovery began to emerge in Q2 2025 [3] - The vaccine sector has undergone two years of valuation digestion, entering a historical valuation trough, with the median P/E ratio of vaccine companies falling below the overall pharmaceutical industry by 25 percentage points [4] - The traditional vaccine market is shrinking, with the proportion of infants aged 0-6 years declining from 64.6% in 2020 to 43.7% in 2024, prompting leading companies to upgrade products to high-end and multi-valent vaccines to find new growth paths [7] - The adult vaccine market and international demand present significant growth opportunities, with China's vaccination rates for flu vaccines remaining low compared to the U.S., and overseas markets offering potential due to lower production costs and flexible cooperation [8] Company Analysis - The market undervalues CanSino Biologics, perceiving it as a "Biotech" reliant on a few products, while it has made substantial progress in commercial maturity, financial health, technological barriers, and global expansion [9] - CanSino's transition from "Biotech" to "Biopharma" is evidenced by its ability to generate sustainable revenue, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching approximately 693 million yuan, a 22.13% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of approximately 14.44 million yuan [10] - The company's cash flow has improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 33.49 million yuan in Q3 2025, providing financial support for pipeline advancement [11] - CanSino's five technological platforms create a core barrier, with multiple innovative vaccine products targeting various diseases, including a recently approved 13-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine [12][13] - The internationalization strategy of CanSino, focusing on "technology output + localized production," is undervalued, with successful registrations and partnerships in regions like Indonesia and the Middle East [15] Conclusion - The vaccine industry is undergoing a "淘汰赛" (elimination race), with significant pressure on homogenized companies, while CanSino has built resilience through unique advantages and a diversified pipeline [16]