专访彼得森研究所杰弗里·肖特：美国关税大棒之下WTO何去何从

Core Insights - The core motivation behind the U.S. government's tariff policies is domestic political considerations rather than economic efficiency [1][4][5] - Tariff policies are leading to increased costs for imported components, which suppresses competition and raises domestic production costs, ultimately weakening market demand [1][4] - The uncertainty surrounding these policies is causing stagnation in investments in key industries such as automotive and steel [6][10] Trade Policy and Economic Impact - The U.S. government aims to attract foreign investment into manufacturing and agriculture to bolster Trump's political base [1][6] - Current tariffs are expected to be passed on to consumers, which will squeeze corporate profits and reduce investment willingness, creating a vicious cycle [1][4] - The concept of "national security" has been overly extended to include ordinary commercial activities, undermining international trade rules and providing a convenient excuse for protectionist policies [2][5] Multilateral Trade System Challenges - The absence of the U.S. would make a multilateral trade system like the WTO ineffective, necessitating a combination of multilateral, regional, and bilateral trade frameworks [2][8] - The WTO's credibility is being challenged as the U.S. employs unilateral trade policies, making it less reliable as a mechanism for market openness [7][8] - Short-term strategies should focus on controlling damage to the multilateral system while allowing for the development of new effective policies [8][9] Regional Trade Agreements and Supply Chains - Regional agreements like CPTPP and RCEP are becoming new testing grounds for trade rules, with the potential to influence future multilateral frameworks [3][10] - The trend of regionalization in supply chains is particularly evident in the Asia-Pacific region, with mechanisms like RCEP reshaping supply chain dynamics [3][10] - Developing countries need to implement more productive domestic economic policies to attract international investment and avoid resource misallocation [11]