Chengxin Lithium(SZ:002240) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-27 12:37Core Insights - The company reported a turnaround in Q3 with a revenue of 3.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -750 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63% [1] - Q3 revenue reached 1.48 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 61.1% quarter-on-quarter and 59.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 90 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 132.3% and a year-on-year increase of 112.9% [1] - The lithium business became profitable due to rising lithium prices and the commencement of shipments from the Indonesian plant, with an estimated lithium salt shipment of approximately 40,000 tons in the first three quarters [1] Revenue and Profitability - For Q1-3 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 10.2%, an increase of 7.1 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of -24.3%, a decrease of 11.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The average price of lithium products in Q3 was approximately 87,000 yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of nearly 15% [1] - The company expects to ship over 60,000 tons of lithium salt for the entire year of 2025, remaining stable year-on-year [1] Production and Costs - The company’s self-supply rate from mining is approximately 50% for the year, with expected production of 200,000 tons from the Sabixing mine and 60,000-70,000 tons from the Yilonggou mine in 2025 [2] - The total expected production for 2025 is around 260,000 tons, equivalent to 32,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) [2] - The cost of production for the Sabixing mine is estimated at 68,000 yuan per ton, while the Yilonggou mine is estimated at 70,000 yuan per ton [2] Cash Flow and Expenditures - The company reported a decrease in expense ratio to 21.5% for Q1-3 2025, down 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 expense ratio at 17.8%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - Operating cash flow for Q1-3 2025 was 110 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 85.4%, with Q3 operating cash flow at -70 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 118.2% [2] - Capital expenditures for Q1-3 2025 totaled 750 million yuan, a decrease of 62.1% year-on-year, with Q3 capital expenditures at 140 million yuan, a decrease of 78.7% year-on-year [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Due to impairment impacts in 2025, the profit forecast for 2025 has been lowered, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised, with expected net profits of -600 million yuan, 550 million yuan, and 1 billion yuan respectively [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to its excellent lithium resource endowment and the ramp-up of production from the Indonesian plant [3]