研究400年30次泡沫后，这家540亿美元对冲基金为何依然坚定看好AI？

Core Viewpoint - Coatue Management, managing $54 billion in assets, asserts that betting on AI remains a sound choice despite rising bubble warnings, based on a thorough analysis of 30 historical market bubbles over 400 years [1][2] Historical Comparison - Current AI development differs fundamentally from past speculative bubbles, with AI's adoption rate surpassing that of personal computers and the internet [2] - Capital expenditures in AI are primarily funded by healthy operating cash flows rather than excessive leverage, contrasting with previous bubbles [2] - Current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of AI leaders are not at the extreme highs seen during the internet bubble [2] - Market concentration is not necessarily a negative indicator, and disruptive technologies like AI may take years to yield positive returns on invested capital (ROIC) [2] - The true impact of AI is difficult to quantify, leading to potential underestimation of its value, with direct and indirect benefits to productivity [2] Industry Impact - AI is significantly driving growth in e-commerce and advertising, with its influence extending beyond the tech sector to industries like trucking and fintech [3] Investment Portfolio - Coatue acknowledges risks in the AI sector, including the large scale of leading companies, high capital expenditure levels, and slowing adoption rates [4] - Despite these risks, the differences between the current AI trend and historical bubbles are deemed more critical [4] - Coatue's second-quarter 13-F filing shows a clear inclination towards AI in its portfolio, with major holdings in companies like CoreWeave, Meta Platforms, Amazon, GE Vernova, and Microsoft, along with a 5% allocation to companies closely related to the AI ecosystem, such as Constellation Energy, TSMC, and Nvidia [4]