Ge Long Hui·2025-10-27 13:09Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in retail sales for the third quarter of 2025, with a notable increase in e-commerce sales, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [1][2]. Retail Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the overall retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded a mid-single-digit decline year-on-year, with offline channels experiencing a high-single-digit decline [1]. - The retail (direct operation) channel saw a mid-single-digit decline, while the wholesale (franchise) channel experienced a high-single-digit decline [1]. - E-commerce virtual store business recorded a high-single-digit growth [1]. Sales Point Numbers - The total number of sales points in China (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) reached 6,132, with a net increase of 33 points from the previous quarter and a net increase of 15 points year-to-date [1]. - Retail business saw a net decrease of 46 points, while wholesale business had a net increase of 61 points [1]. - Li Ning YOUNG sales points totaled 1,480, with a net increase of 45 points from the previous quarter and a net increase of 12 points year-to-date [1]. Market Insights - The company experienced a slowdown in sales decline compared to the first half of the year, with e-commerce sales showing high-single-digit growth [2]. - The discount rate has deepened compared to the previous period, with inventory turnover ratio rising to 5-6 months due to holiday and promotional stockpiling [2]. - The company plans to stabilize store adjustments and expects a concentrated release of new products in the fourth quarter [2]. Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 2.51 billion, 2.83 billion, and 3.04 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year change of -16.6%, +12.5%, and +7.7% respectively [2]. - The company is viewed positively for its healthy operational foundation and potential for brand growth acceleration through marketing efforts [2]. - A reasonable valuation range of 21.1-22.3 HKD is maintained, corresponding to a 2026 PE of 18-19x, with an "outperform" rating [2].