Options Corner: UPS

Core Viewpoint - UPS is facing significant challenges, with its stock down approximately 30% this year, underperforming compared to both the industrial sector and broader market indices [2][10]. Company Performance - UPS's stock has declined about 35.12%, contrasting sharply with the XLI ETF's increase of around 14% and the S&P 500's rise of nearly 17% [2]. - The company is experiencing a difficult situation, particularly in comparison to its sector, with FedEx down only 12.4% [2]. Technical Analysis - The stock is trending downward but has shown some stabilization around lower levels, with a consistent support floor near 82 [3][6]. - Resistance levels are identified around 89, with a downward sloping trend line indicating a continued descent from previous highs [4][8]. - The 21-day exponential moving average is starting to slope upward, suggesting modest improvement, while the stock is trading near the 63-day exponential moving average [5]. Market Sentiment and Volatility - There is elevated applied volatility leading into the upcoming earnings report, indicating a critical juncture for the company [10]. - The loss of half of its Amazon business is a significant headwind, and the company is currently paying a 7.5% dividend yield, which may be at risk if profitability continues to decline [11]. Options Strategy - A bullish call diagonal strategy is proposed, involving buying an 87 strike call option expiring on November 14 and selling a 93 strike call option expiring on October 31, capturing the earnings event [12][13]. - The strategy is designed to profit if the stock moves above the $88 level, with the option market pricing in a potential move of about 7% [14].