房价一路下跌！买房就能赚的时代一去不复返？未来房价走向成迷

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has shifted from a period of rapid price increases to a decline, with national housing prices experiencing a downward trend, marking the end of the era where buying property was seen as a guaranteed profit opportunity [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of September 2025, only 5 out of 70 major cities in China saw an increase in new home prices, while the second-hand housing market experienced a complete decline, indicating a nationwide drop in housing prices [1]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have seen second-hand home prices decrease by over 0.8%, with Shanghai leading at a 1.0% decline [1]. Group 2: Underlying Causes - The demand for housing has changed significantly due to urbanization reaching over 65%, limited future growth, and a declining population, leading to fewer potential homebuyers [3]. - Household debt levels have reached historical highs, limiting the purchasing power of families who are already heavily burdened by mortgage repayments, causing many to adopt a wait-and-see approach [3]. - Consumer confidence has been shaken by reports of real estate companies facing financial difficulties and declining property values, leading to a shift in perception regarding the profitability of real estate investments [3]. Group 3: Societal Changes - The younger generation is increasingly viewing homeownership as a non-essential goal, prioritizing quality of life and experiences over long-term financial commitments associated with mortgages [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to enter a new phase characterized by stability in total volume but differentiation in structure, with no return to widespread price increases [6]. - Core areas in first-tier and strong second-tier cities may see price stabilization or slow recovery due to ongoing population influx, while third and fourth-tier cities may face prolonged downward pressure on prices [6]. - The quality of housing will become a critical factor, with low-density, well-designed properties likely to be more desirable, while high-density developments may struggle with resale and value retention [6]. Group 5: Investment Perspective - The narrative around real estate has shifted from wealth creation to a focus on living quality, necessitating more rational and cautious decision-making regarding home purchases [8].