Lumen to Report Q3 Earnings: What Should Investors Expect?

Core Insights - Lumen Technologies, Inc. is set to report its Q3 2025 results on October 30, with a consensus estimate of a loss of $0.31 per share, compared to a loss of $0.13 in the same quarter last year, and total revenues expected to be $3.04 billion, reflecting a 5.5% year-over-year decline [1][10] Group 1: Financial Performance and Estimates - Lumen's earnings have exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 97.5% [2] - The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA to be between $3.2 billion and $3.4 billion for 2025, expecting to report near the high end of this range [10] - Cost-cutting measures are projected to yield $350 million in run-rate benefits for 2025, an increase from the previously targeted $250 million [10] Group 2: Growth Drivers - Lumen is benefiting from the rise of AI, with $9 billion in Private Connectivity Fabric (PCF) deals, up $500 million from the previous quarter, driven by demand for existing conduit and new route construction [3] - The adoption of Network-as-a-Service (NaaS) is increasing, with Lumen surpassing 1,000 customers and partnerships with the three largest cloud service providers [4] - A connected ecosystem is being developed to facilitate the purchase and management of network services, which is expected to accelerate client acquisition [5] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Lumen is pursuing a $5.75 billion sale of its Mass Markets fiber-to-the-home business to AT&T, expected to close in the first half of 2026, which will help reduce debt [8] - The company is focused on simplifying its capital structure and extending debt maturities, having executed a $2 billion refinancing that saves nearly $50 million in annual interest expenses [9] - Recent collaboration with Palantir Technologies aims to enhance AI deployment for enterprises in multi-cloud environments [13] Group 4: Challenges and Market Conditions - The legacy business continues to face secular headwinds, impacting top-line growth, particularly in the Wholesale segment [11] - Lumen expects Public Sector Harvest revenues to normalize in the second half of 2025 after elevated levels [12] - The company anticipates fluctuations in free cash flow as it navigates significant PCF builds, alongside concerns over higher costs, macro volatility, and competition in the AI sector [12] Group 5: Infrastructure Development - Lumen plans to add 34 million new intercity fiber miles by 2028, with over 2.2 million new miles deployed in 2025 alone [14] - Construction is ongoing at 176 In-Line Amplifier sites to enhance signal strength and scalability [14]