超级央行周来袭！ 美联储、加拿大央行料再降息

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% due to recent lower-than-expected inflation data [1][2] - The Fed had previously maintained a wait-and-see approach for the first eight months of the year, assessing the impact of tariffs and other policy adjustments on the economy [1][2] - In September, the Fed decided to cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points and projected two more rate cuts by the end of the year [1][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Despite concerns about tariffs potentially increasing inflation, the labor market in the U.S. shows signs of weakness, leading the market to fully price in expectations for a Fed rate cut [2][3] - The upcoming consumer confidence index for October is highly anticipated due to delays in economic data releases caused by the federal government shutdown [2] - The market is also focused on the Fed's language following the rate decision to gauge future rate cut magnitude and speed [2][3] Group 3: Diverging Views within the Fed - There are internal divisions within the Fed regarding the outlook for rate cuts, with some officials expressing concerns about inflation rising again [3][4] - The September rate forecast indicated that among 19 Fed decision-makers, 9 supported one more rate cut this year, while 7 preferred no further cuts [3][4] - Concerns about rising service sector prices and the stability of long-term inflation expectations are influencing the Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts [4] Group 4: Bank of Japan's Stance - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current policy but may signal a hawkish stance, with potential conditions for a rate hike forming by December [5][6] - The new Prime Minister's administration complicates the decision-making process for the Bank of Japan, as they seek to raise borrowing costs to the highest level since 1995 [5][6] - There is speculation that the Bank of Japan may issue hawkish signals to prevent further depreciation of the yen, which has recently hit an eight-month low against the dollar [6][7]