日本加入中美“稀土战争”，和中国针锋相对，站在了必败的那一边

Core Viewpoint - The recent actions of the US, Japan, and Australia in the rare earth sector indicate a strategic effort to establish a supply chain independent of China, focusing on vertical integration and technological collaboration [1][3][5]. Group 1: Agreements and Collaborations - The US and Australia signed an $8.5 billion rare earth cooperation agreement, followed by a meeting between Trump and Japan's Prime Minister to finalize US-Japan rare earth collaboration [1]. - US company REAlloys and Japan's JOGMEC signed a memorandum to advance vertical integration from Canadian mining to US manufacturing, including a joint venture for a 100-ton gallium refining plant in Western Australia [3][5]. Group 2: Investment and Technology Transfer - Australia and the US plan to invest at least $1 billion each within six months, focusing on the entire rare earth supply chain, with $2.2 billion in financing from the US Export-Import Bank already in place [5]. - Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has committed to transferring rare earth separation and magnet manufacturing technology, although these technologies have not yet achieved practical production capacity [5]. Group 3: Challenges and Limitations - The US faces challenges in the midstream refining segment, as it relies on China for extraction and separation, while Australia primarily produces light rare earths, which do not meet high-end manufacturing demands [7]. - The gallium refining project in Western Australia encounters obstacles due to China's control over gallium production and export restrictions on key technologies [7][9]. Group 4: Industrial Ecosystem and Strategic Shortcomings - The US and its allies struggle with an "industrial ecological gap," as China's decades of experience in rare earth processing cannot be easily replicated through technology transfer or financial investment [9]. - The US Department of Defense's report highlights a significant dependency on critical minerals, including rare earths, for nearly 2,000 weapon systems, emphasizing the urgency of addressing supply chain vulnerabilities [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Cooperation - The collaboration among the US, Japan, and Australia may yield alternative production capacities for light rare earths, but the shortfall in heavy rare earths and high-end magnets will not be resolved in the short term [11]. - A pragmatic approach involves recognizing the need for coexistence within a compliant framework, moving away from the "decoupling" mindset, as rare earths are essential for global industrial development [11].