抛售潮迟迟一直没能出现？更令人心酸的是，有人已经开始断供了

Core Insights - The current real estate market is facing significant challenges, with many homeowners opting to continue paying high mortgage rates rather than selling their properties at a loss [1][3][4] - Despite a continuous decline in second-hand housing prices, a large-scale selling wave has not materialized, leading to a phenomenon of "wait-and-see" among buyers and sellers [7][8] Market Data - As of August 2025, the second-hand housing price index in 70 major cities has dropped for 18 consecutive months, with an average decline of 9.6% [1] - The number of second-hand homes listed for sale increased by only 3.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, significantly below the expected growth of over 10% [1] Homeowner Behavior - Many homeowners prefer to endure high mortgage payments rather than sell at a loss, with some believing that the market will recover in the future [3][8] - A survey indicated that 87.3% of respondents feel that owning a home provides a sense of security, and 73.2% would not easily sell their homes even if prices drop [8] Mortgage Default Risks - The personal mortgage non-performing loan ratio has risen from 0.3% in 2023 to 0.9% in the second quarter of 2025, indicating increasing financial strain on homeowners [3] - Approximately 1.5% of the total personal housing loan balance of 38.5 trillion yuan is at risk of default, suggesting over 57 billion yuan in potential mortgage defaults [3] Regional Variations - The phenomenon of mortgage defaults is more pronounced in third- and fourth-tier cities, with some areas reporting default rates close to 5% [4][5] - Developers in these regions are offering solutions like "old-for-new" exchanges to alleviate the pressure on homeowners [5] Banking Sector Response - Banks are providing assistance to borrowers facing temporary repayment difficulties, including options for deferred payments and adjusted repayment plans [7] - Legal measures are being considered for those who maliciously default on their mortgages [7] Future Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to shift from a focus on buying and selling to providing comprehensive living services, as indicated by industry experts [12] - The need for a return to the fundamental residential nature of housing, moving away from excessive financialization and speculation, is emphasized [12]