中美吉隆坡会谈之际，越南已经向美国妥协，发联合声明做出巨大让步

Core Points - Vietnam and the United States reached a trade agreement in July 2025, where Vietnam opened its market to U.S. goods with zero tariffs in exchange for a reduction of U.S. tariffs from 46% to 20% [1][3] - The agreement reflects Vietnam's strategic maneuvering amid U.S.-China tensions, balancing concessions to the U.S. while deepening ties with China [1][5] Unequal Terms - Vietnam committed to zero tariffs on key sectors such as automobiles and medical devices, while the U.S. imposed a 20% baseline tariff on Vietnamese goods, higher than Vietnam's previous average of 9.4% [3] - A controversial 40% punitive tariff applies to goods not meeting the "substantial transformation" requirement, targeting approximately one-third of Vietnam's exports that rely on Chinese components [3][5] Economic Dependence - In 2024, Vietnam's trade surplus with the U.S. reached $123.5 billion, accounting for 27% of its GDP, with the U.S. market absorbing 30% of Vietnam's exports [5] - Domestic political pressures and the need for economic stability ahead of significant reforms in 2025 influenced Vietnam's decision to compromise [5] Industry Restructuring - The U.S. aims to cut off China's export routes through Vietnam, with about 45% of Vietnam's exports to the U.S. consisting of electronic components and textile materials sourced from China [7] - Major brands like Nike and Adidas, which have significant production in Vietnam, saw stock declines following the announcement of the agreement, prompting some companies to diversify production to other countries [7] Southeast Asian Fragmentation - Vietnam's unilateral actions disrupted ASEAN's unified stance, leading to dissatisfaction among member countries and prompting them to adjust their strategies [8] - The competitive dynamics created by the U.S. negotiations have led to a "race to the bottom" among Southeast Asian nations [8] Regional Dynamics - China remains cautious but has not overreacted to Vietnam's agreement, emphasizing that it should not harm third-party interests while accelerating negotiations for a new version of the ASEAN Free Trade Area [10] - Vietnam's production heavily relies on Chinese imports, with 38% of its components sourced from China, complicating any potential decoupling [10]