现在150万的房子，10年后还能值多少钱？马光远二句话说透

Core Viewpoint - The era of real estate as the best investment has ended, and housing will return to its residential attribute, indicating potential downward pressure on housing prices to align with local residents' income levels [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Chinese real estate market faces a long-standing supply-demand imbalance, with a total of 600 million existing homes, theoretically capable of accommodating 3 billion people, while 96% of families own at least one property [4] - The phenomenon of "unfinished buildings" is causing a severe trust crisis, as tight financing and poor sales lead to project stoppages, further eroding buyer confidence and increasing the risk of price declines [3] Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Rigid housing demand is shrinking, with urbanization at 64% and an aging population that largely already owns homes, reducing the potential for new buyers [6] - The declining marriage rates among younger generations and a drop in newborns to 9.65 million last year are expected to significantly reduce the demand for new homes [6] Group 3: Affordability Issues - Residents' income levels are insufficient to support high housing prices, with average prices rising from 2,000 yuan per square meter in 1998 to a peak of 11,000 yuan per square meter, a 5.5-fold increase, while many families struggle with mortgage burdens [7] - As of September 2023, 99 cities have reported declines in second-hand housing prices, with over 90 cities experiencing price drops for four consecutive months, prompting government interventions to stimulate the market [8]