弱现实与强预期博弈 甲醇或延续宽幅震荡格局

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is experiencing a tug-of-war between high supply and increasing production losses, leading to heightened price volatility amid contrasting realities and expectations [1] Supply Dynamics - Domestic methanol supply remains high, with port inventories reaching a historical peak of 1.531 million tons as of October 23, an increase of approximately 380,000 tons compared to the same period last year [2] - The expected import volume of methanol in the next two weeks is around 980,000 tons, which is about 50% higher than the average of previous years, indicating continued pressure on port inventories in the short term [2] Seasonal Production Constraints - Iran is expected to reduce methanol production due to seasonal natural gas shortages, with production facilities typically shutting down from mid-November to the end of January for maintenance, potentially easing domestic inventory pressures [3] - Recent geopolitical tensions, including increased U.S. sanctions on Iran and strained relations with Venezuela, could impact methanol imports, as Venezuela accounted for approximately 6% of China's total methanol imports in the past year [3] Cost Support Factors - The domestic methanol industry is facing a scenario of high supply and significant production losses, with an operating rate of approximately 75.85%, which is historically high [4] - The theoretical production profit for coal-based methanol in Inner Mongolia has dropped to -173.5 yuan per ton, a decline of about 200 yuan per ton over the past month, driven by diverging trends in methanol and coal prices [4] - As winter approaches, coal demand is expected to rise, which may provide cost support for methanol production despite current price declines [4] Demand Trends - The demand for methanol is showing a mixed picture, with methanol-to-olefins (MTO) production maintaining a relatively high operating rate of about 84.33%, indicating strong demand resilience [5] - In contrast, traditional downstream sectors are experiencing weakness, with a comprehensive operating rate of only 46.89%, down 6.64 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting sluggish terminal consumption [5] - Overall, the high inventory, supply, and weak demand situation is unlikely to change significantly in the short term, while external factors and cost pressures may provide some support for prices [5]