多因素支撑 焦煤价格将易涨难跌

Core Viewpoint - The domestic coking coal production has significantly decreased year-on-year and month-on-month due to environmental and safety production pressures, leading to a potential new round of price increases for coking coal supported by high operating rates in steel mills and winter storage expectations [1]. Group 1: Supply Constraints - Environmental issues have continuously impacted coal mine production, particularly in the Wuhai region, where open-pit coal mining has faced ongoing restrictions [2]. - Following the introduction of "anti-involution" measures in July, the Shanxi provincial government has strengthened safety production controls, resulting in reduced operating rates across both state-owned and private coal mines [2]. - Coking coal production from major producers has declined, with a notable 13% drop in October compared to the peak in May, and a 4.4% year-on-year decrease in average daily raw coal production from 523 sample mines [2]. Group 2: Import Dynamics - After a rebound in coking coal prices in Q3, Mongolian coal imports surged in August and September, maintaining a high volume of 6 million tons, but recent shipments have declined due to reduced inventory and political instability in Mongolia [3]. - The quality of Mongolian coal has deteriorated, with lower-grade coal now comprising less than 50% of shipments, leading to an increase in the premium for low-sulfur coking coal [3]. - The inventory at ports has decreased by 50% from the beginning of the year, which has shifted the market dynamics, putting pressure on delivery and pricing [3]. Group 3: Demand Trends - The primary pressure on rising coal prices comes from downstream demand, with steel inventory levels increasing since August, leading to compressed steel margins [4]. - Despite a lack of optimism regarding demand forecasts, steel mills have maintained high operating rates due to better profit margins compared to last year, even while facing slight losses [4]. - The ongoing production cuts in coal mines since July have created a fundamental support for the coking coal market, with winter storage demand expected to sustain prices despite potential seasonal declines in raw material demand [4].