美联储决议前瞻：透露进一步宽松信号？缩表命运或揭晓

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points during its two-day meeting, with market attention on Chairman Powell's signals for future easing amid political pressure and internal disagreements within the Fed [1][5]. Economic Data and Market Conditions - The U.S. government shutdown has led to delays in key economic data releases, creating uncertainty for the Fed's policy decisions. There are conflicting signals in the macroeconomic landscape, including inflation above the 2% target, weak hiring, and rising corporate investment expectations [2][3]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a key inflation measure for the Fed, has risen from 2.3% in April to 2.7% in August, indicating potential inflation risks [2]. Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Fed Governor Barr predicts core inflation will exceed 3% by year-end, with a return to the 2% target not expected until 2027, raising concerns about the adequacy of current monetary policy [3]. - Kansas City Fed President Schmid expresses hesitance towards further rate cuts due to inflation concerns, while the absence of non-farm payroll reports complicates labor market assessments [3][4]. Labor Market Insights - San Francisco Fed President Daly emphasizes the importance of monitoring the labor market, suggesting that without risk management measures, labor market weaknesses could worsen [4]. - Despite a slowdown in hiring, there are no widespread layoffs reported, and consumer spending remains resilient, although the government shutdown poses additional uncertainties [4]. Future Monetary Policy Outlook - While a rate cut is anticipated, internal divisions within the Fed may create uncertainty regarding future policy directions [5]. - Market expectations indicate a 90% probability of consecutive rate cuts in the remaining meetings of the year, with potential for 2-3 additional cuts next year [6]. Quantitative Tightening and Asset Purchases - The Fed may signal an end to its quantitative tightening (QT) policy, with discussions around halting the reduction of its balance sheet, which has decreased from over $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the Fed could fully stop QT in the upcoming meeting, although the pace of reducing mortgage-backed securities may remain slow due to complex market conditions [10].