盘中跌停！原木期货交易逻辑变了？

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in lumber futures prices, despite being a peak demand season, is attributed to the failure of previous bullish expectations and weakening demand in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Lumber futures prices fell by 5.12%, reaching a limit down, due to the collapse of bullish expectations related to increased import costs from special port fees imposed by China on U.S. vessels [1]. - The recent progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations has led to a consensus on maritime logistics and tariff suspensions, which diminished the expectations of rising costs [1][2]. - Current supply pressure is significant, with port arrivals maintaining a higher-than-normal level, particularly with an expected 14 vessels arriving in the week of November 2, totaling nearly 500,000 cubic meters [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Analysis - The demand for lumber is weak, with average daily shipments in the Yangtze River Delta region dropping to 46,900 cubic meters, a 23.11% decrease compared to the same period last year [2]. - Despite September and October being traditional peak seasons for wood processing and furniture production, demand has been underwhelming, with average daily shipments around 64,400 cubic meters [3]. - The market is experiencing a seasonal increase in lumber imports, which is expected to continue, leading to heightened inventory pressure amid weak demand [3][4]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The market sentiment is increasingly bearish, with concerns about the potential continuation of price declines and the possibility of futures contracts trading at a discount [3]. - The fourth quarter is anticipated to be divided into two phases: a peak season in October followed by a downturn in November, influenced by reduced construction activity in northern regions due to colder weather [4]. - The prevailing market logic revolves around high inventory levels and weak demand, suggesting that unless there is a significant reduction in import volumes, prices may fall below current spot costs [4].