温氏股份(300498)：畜禽出栏稳健增长 降负债高分红彰显长期信心

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 75.817 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a slight decrease of 0.04% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.256 billion yuan, down 18.28% year-on-year. The net profit for Q3 alone was 1.78 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 65.02% year-on-year [1] Group 1 - The dual main business operations of pigs and chickens are performing well, effectively hedging against market risks associated with single business lines. The company sold 27.67 million pigs in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.3%. The total cost of pig farming in Q3 is estimated to be around 12.4 yuan/kg [2] - The company has seen stable growth in chicken sales, with 948 million chickens sold in the first three quarters, an increase of 9% year-on-year. A recovery in Q3 market conditions is expected to lead to a rebound in profits, with some recovery in the depreciation of chicken inventory [2] - The company's debt ratio decreased to 49.4% in Q3, enhancing financial safety and risk resilience. The dividend payout ratio of 38% reflects the company's confidence in navigating through cycles and its ability to return value to shareholders [2] Group 2 - The company has clarified its direction for international expansion in the chicken business and has organized a dedicated team to implement this plan. It is also working to boost the consumption and cultural promotion of traditional Chinese chickens [2] - The company is transitioning from a livestock farming enterprise to a food supply business, refining its operations into three main categories: livestock, ingredients, and food, based on the existing "Wens Food" brand [2] Group 3 - Long-term outlook remains positive for the company's dual main business model, with stable operations and a clear direction for future international expansion. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 91.449 billion, 109.772 billion, and 121.08 billion yuan, with net profits of 5.574 billion, 9.745 billion, and 13.621 billion yuan respectively. Corresponding PE ratios are expected to be 21.85, 12.50, and 8.94x, maintaining a "recommended" rating [3]