Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of various asset classes in the first three quarters of the year and explores investment opportunities for the fourth quarter, emphasizing the importance of a balanced asset allocation strategy amid market uncertainties [1][2]. Equity Assets - Multiple institutions express optimism about the performance of equity assets in the fourth quarter, citing favorable global conditions such as moderate inflation, easing monetary policies, and robust corporate earnings as supportive factors for equity growth [3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to benefit emerging market equities, with historical trends indicating that emerging markets typically outperform developed markets during periods of a weakening dollar [3]. - Hong Kong stocks are expected to experience a rebound due to low valuations and sensitivity to foreign capital flows, while A-shares are supported by policies aimed at stabilizing earnings and promoting technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [3]. Gold Investment - Despite recent adjustments in gold prices, the fundamental logic supporting gold as a hedge against sovereign debt risks, inflation, and geopolitical events remains intact [5][6]. - The recent price corrections are attributed to profit-taking after significant gains, but long-term support for gold is expected from the Fed's rate-cutting cycle and ongoing demand from central banks and investors [6][7]. - The weakening dollar is seen as a factor that could enhance gold's price potential, with gold being viewed as a strong investment choice amid global trade uncertainties [7]. Commodity Focus - Institutions are also paying attention to commodities like aluminum and coal, with low global inventories and increased demand due to inflationary pressures expected to create opportunities in these sectors [8]. - The upcoming winter heating demand is projected to support coal prices, making it an attractive area for investment [8]. Balanced Strategy Consensus - A consensus among institutions suggests adopting a balanced strategy for asset allocation in the fourth quarter, combining equities, bonds, and commodities to mitigate risks and seize opportunities in a complex market environment [9]. - The strategy emphasizes the importance of monitoring the fundamentals and structural opportunities in equity markets while utilizing defensive assets like bonds and gold to hedge against risks [9][10]. - A "core + satellite" approach is recommended, focusing on A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and gold as core holdings, while exploring opportunities in industrial metals as satellite investments [10].
全球资金潮涌何方 机构拆解四季度大类资产配置思路
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-28 00:56